Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered mixed headline prints with a strong margin profile: non-GAAP EPS $0.64 vs S&P Global consensus ~$0.565 (beat), Adjusted EBITDA $175M vs consensus ~$171.5M (company definition higher than SPGI actual ~$166M), and revenue $980M vs consensus ~$999.5M (miss) * * *.
Recurring revenue rose to 76% of total ($742M), with notable strength in Services/Software mix expanding gross margin 300 bps YoY and Adjusted EBITDA margin 270 bps YoY .
Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance (Core revenue +3–6% cc; Total revenue +1–3% cc; Adj. EBITDA +7–10% cc; Adj. EPS growth +21–27%; Adj. FCF $260–$300M), citing resilient demand, robust backlog (hardware and ATMaaS), and contingency plans to offset tariff headwinds .
Catalysts: accelerating ATMaaS (revenue +24% YoY to $57M, ARR ~$230M), North America-led margin expansion, new network partners (7‑Eleven; Casey’s), and continued service productivity gains (AI-driven dispatch) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Non-GAAP EPS and margin outperformance: EPS $0.64 grew 56% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA margin up 270 bps to 17.9%, driven by higher Services/Software mix and cost productivity . “A strong start to 2025… financial results either in-line with, or above, our expectations despite… proposed tariffs…” — CEO Tim Oliver .
- ATMaaS acceleration: revenue +24% YoY to $57M, gross margin ~38%, unique customers +40% YoY; ARR reached ~$230M; backlog and pipeline support ~40% FY growth target .
- Network capabilities and partners: signed 7‑Eleven to Allpoint (75M cardholders), expanded UK deposit network; deposit transactions up >200% YoY to ~$1B annualized run rate .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line miss vs consensus and YoY decline: revenue $980M vs est. ~$999.5M; consolidated revenue down 7% YoY as “Other” (Voyix-related) wound down and LibertyX faced regulatory pressure * .
- Hardware timing skew and macro headwinds: planned shift of first-half hardware deliveries into Q2; international transaction softness; tariff uncertainty weighing on outlook mix (though mitigations planned) .
- LibertyX headwinds: regulatory changes reduced bitcoin transaction revenue; low margin, top-line drag persists (offset by diversified transaction growth) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	1,050	1,108	980
Gross Profit (GAAP, $USD Millions)	221	297	235
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	160	228	175
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	15.2%	20.6%	17.9%
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	0.41	1.11	0.64

Segment performance (YoY dynamics; Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024):

Segment	Q1 2024 Revenue ($MM)	Q1 2025 Revenue ($MM)	YoY %	Q1 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($MM)	Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($MM)	YoY %
Self‑Service Banking	628	624	(1)%	134	153	+14%
Network	310	299	(4)%	86	88	+2%
T&T	51	43	(16)%	10	8	(20)%
Other	61	14	(77)%	4	2	(50)%
Corporate	—	—	—	(74)	(76)	+3%

KPIs and mix:

KPI	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Recurring Revenue ($MM)	763; 73% mix	—	742; 76% mix
ATMaaS Revenue ($MM)	46	52	57
ATMaaS Gross Profit ($MM)	—	17.4	21.4
ATMaaS ARR ($MM)	183	>212	230
ATMaaS LTM ARPU ($K)	~8.0	8.6	8.4

Consensus vs actual (S&P Global; Q1 2025):

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($MM)	999.5*	980*	Miss*
Primary EPS ($)	0.565*	0.64*	Beat*
EBITDA ($MM)	171.5*	166.0*	Miss*

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Company reported Adjusted EBITDA of $175M (definition differs from SPGI’s EBITDA, reconciling items include OI&E and other non-GAAP adjustments) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Core Revenue Growth (cc)	FY 2025	+3% to +6% (FX ~-2%)	+3% to +6% (FX ~-2%)	Maintained
Total Revenue Growth (cc)	FY 2025	+1% to +3% (FX ~-2%)	+1% to +3% (FX ~-2%; Voyix down ~$100M)	Maintained
Total Adjusted EBITDA Growth (cc)	FY 2025	+7% to +10% (FX ~-1%)	+7% to +10% (FX ~-1%)	Maintained
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$3.90–$4.10	+21% to +27% growth (methodology note)	Maintained (framework)
Adjusted FCF – Unrestricted	FY 2025	$260–$300M	$260–$300M	Maintained
Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA	Q2 2025	—	$190–$205M; SSB margins mid‑20s; Network high‑20s; T&T low‑20s	New intra‑year detail
Q2 2025 EPS (Non‑GAAP)	Q2 2025	—	$0.75–$0.90; ETR ~26%; shares ~75M	New intra‑year detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 & Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
AI/Service Productivity	Reinvigorated innovation; margin expansion via continuous improvement	AI-driven dispatch pilot successful in Canada; global rollout ready; service KPIs at highs	Strengthening
Supply Chain/Hardware	Early innings of refresh cycle; improving recycler product; Q4 hardware deferrals to ATMaaS	Hardware skew to Q2 per plan; heavy demand for recycler; logistics met all deliveries amid factory consolidation	Improving throughput
Tariffs/Macro	Limited exposure (Mexico spare parts), monitoring complexity	CFO quantifies gross tariff exposure: ~$25M for 3 quarters; blended ~15% rate on ~$225M U.S.-imported costs; pricing/supply chain/productivity to offset	Manageable headwind
Product Performance	Services/Software driving margin/ARR; ATMaaS +23–27% growth	ATMaaS revenue +24% YoY; gross margin ~38%; ARR ~$230M; ARPU stable	Accelerating
Regional Trends	NA withdrawals +6% YoY; intl -2% (ASDA comp); deposits +240% YoY	NA withdrawals modest; U.K. down HSD; deposits +200% YoY; ReadyCode partner transition temporary	Mixed; deposits strong
Regulatory/Legal	Credit facility refinanced; LibertyX low margin top-line noise	LibertyX further pressured by regulatory changes; deemphasized; exploring monetization at devices	Headwind contained
Partnerships	Expanded Chime branding; adding issuers to Allpoint Plus	7‑Eleven returns to Allpoint; Casey’s added; Canada Access Cash; building fintech/wallet integrations	Expanding
R&D/Innovation	Concept machines; service-first culture	Innovation Lab; customer events/panels; continued service-first execution	Advancing

Management Commentary

“Our performance was uniformly strong across sales, operations, product innovation, and our key strategic initiatives… on track to meet our objectives for the year despite the uncertain global economic environment caused by the proposed tariffs” — Tim Oliver, CEO .
“Top line growth in our higher‑margin recurring businesses, coupled with good early progress on productivity initiatives drove 9% growth in adjusted EBITDA… margin expanded 270 bps” — Andy Wamser, CFO .
“Allpoint cash withdrawals grew modestly… cash deposits… reached an annual run rate of $1B… new high for ARPU” — Network update .
“ATM as a Service… revenue grew 24% YoY… gross margin up ~700 bps to ~38%… backlog supports reaching 40% growth for the year” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Hardware cadence/backlog: Best hardware year since 2019 expected; recycler demand strong; first-half skew planned with Q2 ramp; network hardware is capex (PP&E), not revenue .
Leverage and buybacks: Target <3x net leverage by mid‑year; preference to return excess FCF via share repurchase thereafter (dividends not favored) .
ATMaaS backlog/ARPU: Backlog up ~25% YoY; backlog ARPU down LTM by $200 due to timing mix, but quarterly ARPU up ~5% and expected to rise on NAMR mix .
Tariff quantification: ~$850M hardware/parts revenue; ~20% margin implies ~$680M costs; ~~1/3 U.S. import (~~$225M base); blended ~15% tariff → ~$34M annual, ~$25M for remaining 3 quarters; mitigations include pricing, supply chain shifts, productivity .
Network transactions: NA withdrawals would grow low-mid single digits excluding ReadyCode/DCC/prepaid impacts; deposits +170% YoY; ReadyCode partners onboarding to reaccelerate .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global: EPS beat (0.64 vs ~0.565), revenue miss ($980M vs ~~$999.5M), EBITDA miss (~~$166M vs ~$171.5M) given definitional differences vs company’s Adjusted EBITDA ($175M) *.
Estimate visibility: EPS and revenue covered by ~4 estimates each; EBITDA consensus reflects SPGI methodology, not company non-GAAP [GetEstimates—Q1 2025]*.
Implication: Expect upward revisions to EPS and margin trajectories within Services/Software and ATMaaS; revenue expectations may adjust for “Other” wind down and LibertyX regulatory impact *.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Margin-led story is intact: Services/Software mix and productivity are expanding margins despite tariff and crypto headwinds; expect continued EPS/margin momentum through FY25 .
ATMaaS is scaling with attractive unit economics (NAMR mix), delivering high incremental gross profit and ARR growth; supports multi-year recurring profile and rerating potential .
Network business diversification (deposits, ReadyCode, branding) and new partners (7‑Eleven, Casey’s) underpin ARPU growth and unit recovery as pharmacy closures normalize .
Tariff risk appears manageable (~$25M gross for remainder of year) with clear mitigation levers; watch for supply chain/pricing updates and FX headwinds on reported metrics .
FY25 guidance reaffirmed; short-term trading: favor margin beats and ATMaaS updates over top-line volatility; medium-term thesis: recurring revenue mix toward ~80% and FCF compounding (with potential buybacks post <3x net leverage) .

Appendix: Non-GAAP adjustments (Q1 2025)

Selected reconciling items to non-GAAP: acquisition-related amortization ($23M), stock-based comp ($9M), separation costs ($2M), Voyix environmental indemnification ($3M), other OI&E items ($1M), yielding Adjusted gross profit $257M and non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.64 .

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